High-resolution climate change projections for Queensland using dynamical downscaling of CMIP5 global climate models forced under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), is available for download in gridded format with spatial resolution of 10 km at Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN).
The future climate projections in high temporal resolution (e.g., daily scale) was aggregated into annual time-series (termed "seas_avg") as well as sixteen 20-year time-slices with changes in relation to reference period 1886-2005 (as absolute change and percentage change, termed "abs-change" and "percent-change" respectively). The data are available for calendar seasons – i.e., summer (December, January and February), autumn (March, April and May), winter (June, July and August) and spring (September, October and November). In addition, we also provide aggregated information for wet (November to April) and dry (May to October) periods as well as at annual basis. Modelled climatologies for reference period 1986-2005 are also available (termed "climatologies").
The eleven downscaled Global Climate Models with respective links for download are listed below:
| CMIP5 model name: | Model name: | Institution name: | Country of origin: |
|---|---|---|---|
| ACCESS1-0 | Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator, version 1.0 | CSIRO/BoM | Australia |
| ACCESS1-3 | Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator, version 1.3 | CSIRO/BoM | Australia |
| CCSM4 | Community Climate System Model | NCAR | USA |
| CNRM-CM5 | Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques Coupled Global Climate Model, version 5 | CNRM-CERFACS | France |
| CSIRO-Mk3.6 | Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Mark 3.6.0 | CSIRO-QCCCE | Australia |
| GFDL-CM3 | Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 3 | GFDL/NOAA | USA |
| GFDL-ESM2M | Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model with MOM, version 4 component | GFDL/NOAA | USA |
| HadGEM2 | Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 2 | Met Office Hadley Centre | UK |
| MIROC5 | Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, version 5 | AORI Japan | Japan |
| MPI-ESM-LR | Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, low resolution | Max Planck Institute | German |
| NorESM1-M | Norwegian Earth System Model, version 1 (intermediate resolution) | Norwegian Climate Centre | Norway |
We also provide multi model ensemble averages for the eleven models listed above. The model average is termed as EnsAvgQ.
A set of 25 climate variables is available at TERN as per description below.
|
Acronym |
Long name |
Units |
|---|---|---|
|
d10 |
Change in 10m wind direction |
deg |
|
dew_ave |
Avgerage dew flux |
W/m² |
|
epan_ave |
Avgerage potential "pan" evaporation |
W/m² |
|
evap |
Avgerage evaporation |
mm |
|
fbeam_ave |
Fraction of direct radiation |
none |
|
qgscrn |
Screen mixing ratio |
kg/kg |
|
rhscrn |
Screen relative humidity |
% |
|
rnc |
Convective precipitation |
mm/day |
|
rnd |
Precipitation |
mm/day |
|
rnd03 |
3hr precipitation |
mm |
|
rnd06 |
6hr precipitation |
mm |
|
rnd09 |
9hr precipitation |
mm |
|
rnd12 |
12hr precipitation |
mm |
|
rnd15 |
15hr precipitation |
mm |
|
rnd18 |
18hr precipitation |
mm |
|
rnd21 |
21hr precipitation |
mm |
|
rnd24 |
24hr precipitation |
mm |
|
sfcwindmax |
Maximum 10m wind speed |
m/s |
|
sgdn_ave |
Solar downwelling at ground |
W/m² |
|
sunhours |
Sunshine hours |
hrs |
|
tmaxscr |
Maximum screen temperature |
K |
|
tminscr |
Minimum screen temperature |
K |
|
tscr_ave |
Average screen temperature |
K |
|
tsu_ave |
Avgerage surface temperature |
K |
|
u10 |
10m wind speed |
m/s |
After selecting a model and a variable, users can download annual time-series ("seas_avg"), climatologies for reference period 1986-2005 ("climatologies"), and absolute ("abs_change") and percentage ("percent-change") changes in relation to reference period 1986-2016 for a range of time-slices. The time-slices represent 20-year averages as follow: